PreMarket Prep for May 30: A retail wreck; Marc Chaikin
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PreMarket Prep for May 30: A retail wreck; Marc Chaikin



coming to you live from downtown Detroit this is Ben zingers pre-market prep with your host Joel Kannan in Dennis dick I'm pathetic I will buy the stock for a penny with everything you need to start your trading again good morning everybody welcome to this Thursday edition of ins and goes pre market prep Spencer Israel Doyle con and Dennis stick with you this morning seems like we're in the last push of the q1 earnings season we've got a number of interesting reports both today or yesterday and today it's kind of we're in the final push here so we'll talk about some of the earnings reports we got we'll talk about the secondary offering in Twilio the general just retail wreck that happened overnight and interesting trades that were made yesterday after the bell and this morning in the pre-market session today is guest mark chicken from shaken analytics he would when I said 8:15 Joel what is the word here overnight got a little green on the screen here op six and a quarter handles at 27 86 and a quarter good number on the upside on in a day high from yesterday 9275 your pre market high 93 so there's a nice nice target on the upside on the downside really didn't have anything at seventy six and a quarter just kind of popped down there real quickly but I will be keeping an eye on mid-range in this session which comes in at 85 even and also the clothes from yesterday at 2780 crude cannot get a bounce here flat here at 58 81 gold in the red by four ten and twelve eighty two twined silver in the red by one point six cents at fourteen thirty nine and a half Bitcoin just hanging up here near 9,000 only down two dollars and fifty cents at 87 and a quarter I just want to say that PMP is a family affair here we have Robin who's in the YouTube chat scanning for ideas and then her mom Robins mom is in the pre-market prep chat why John so let us know if we have any other siblings or family members here but glad we can make the show good for the entire family Triple D you look kind of focused in there what do you see I just saw American tower gonna by Eaton towers for 1.85 billion I believe Eaton towers is not Publix I've never traded it or if it is it's not trade in the US yeah it's overseas so I'm just looking you know and then I'm you know obviously looking at those tower plays as reads a SBAC hasn't started moving yet CCI or two other ones that are in that space I'm not sure who's the biggest I'm not sure if anybody this isn't a huge deal but it's a pretty big deal 1.5 billion when you're talking an American tower let's go grab the market cap without right now just to see how much it is for them to swallow oh yeah 88 billion so this is a small deal small small small for them ah you want to hear a quick American tower story yeah I didn't know you had an American tower story give it to me this is a perfect time for it remember when I write we used to play basketball in the morning at Franklin Athletic Club yeah never did I was I'm not a good athlete yeah and it's not on ice so it's not on ice yeah I'm Canadian I play sports on ice there is uh there was a guy that we played basketball I don't know if he's listened to the show Matt choked and he told me to buy this stock American Tower it was this book that was his pick and if you go back there I mean was that I've been like the year 2000 yeah let's go back and see if Matt was correct I'm assuming he was seeing as how it's done the last little while like I can only get down as a 2014 this must have had a ticker symbol change I have it going I got so much data here from going back to April of 2000 it was like forty $48 and then it took quite a haircut during the financial crisis actually went down with Spock for work though so I worked out so Matt chope he's an advisor if you're listening great at all so alright that's never heard that one figured merican tower yeah we don't talk to you and like I said the other ones in the sector SBAC you can look at and also I think CCI is in there too if I'm not mistaken I don't follow REITs that much so these but I think those are three of them but again this is small deal so not likely to move the bigger ones yeah and I not enough to really hit American Tower is that right no when you're talking 1 billion on 88 billion dollar company it's a drop in the bucket so yeah I don't think so okay okay that was just breaking news that's why we started with that I just broke out eight o'clock or at the top of the hour but there's lots of other news here as well and Burt before we get into the beyond meats which are breaking over $100 today before we get into all the earnings stocks here I just want to recap some of those retailers from yesterday and this is why don't be the first guy trying to call the bottom on the goose don't be the first guy trying to call the bottom when a stock disappoints we warned everybody of that yesterday goose was trading 41 we said yes systems with support of 40 but if it takes that out look out below holy cow it took a 40 out and it trade all the way down to 33 bucks of downgrades a little bit coming this morning here straining a lower here again Abercrombie & Fitch same story trades down the free market to 21 I was like well why want to go to 20 it's coming this far so the easy trade is probably shorting it from 21 to 20 well that was easy trade but it continued to go lower all the way down 1839 when stocks are in the gutter they continue to be in the gutter for a long time we even used examples we were talking like the 3m we were talking a number of companies I've disappointed saying if you were buying on that first day you had a lot of pain and it continued the pain continued so I mean just coming in here and saying yeah the stock is cheap wait till they stop going down because these have not even stopped going down I mean holy cow 41 sa a 33 good luck getting your money back so you know it wasn't an overdone down 30% maybe but things just don't bounce back in this tape no not at all and I looked at that too and I thought oh no they gave me a date tree maybe it's gonna bounce in now no not at all didn't even think about it uh it also it was the way it was hanging in the pre-market too was hanging like 40 40 40 50 usually if those numbers are going to be good you know boom II hit 40 in your 42 there was that big bounce on that but just stick it before we get to these retail earnings here you know sometimes we make some good cause sometimes we make some bad calls and sometimes it takes a little while for them to our play out but triple B y Dennis that was one that you talked about activists getting all active everyone did their upgrades takeover they did a decent earnings report in there and there was some activist action we're talking back in March I took a lot of heat from a number of people there when I said I think eventually it gives it all back calm this was in stock was seventeen and a half and I said if I was long and I'd be ringing the register I also said I don't want to short it because these things can stay you know hot for a little while there but I said I think when the dust settles when you look at this six months from now that it gives all it all back well it didn't take six months it took two months and it's not only giving it all back it's actually lower than it was when the activist action started so again these stories when they're broken companies even when the activists get in there sometimes they stay broken and I we've been saying it for a while me and you have hated the stock one we've gotten right for a long time we've hated it forever you go in these stores and they're huge stores selling towels selling other things I mean it was $80 back in 2015 it's 13 bucks here now it's been a value trap the whole way down yes it'll have bounces yes you know these things don't go straight down but I think the story and trip will be why has been broken for a number of years and it remains broken despite activist action and another tipping point is that when they went into groceries I don't know how long ago was that but you know they at least rambling yeah the one that's bye-bye us man selling groceries now a death when two groceries I didn't know this I didn't know that I mean very chill drop this up I in a while I mean I'm not surprised I mean I would be surprised you know they got a screw into that one okay well I don't know all right I did not know this man and all does confuse sometimes I mean food they sell food and wine they've always sold snacks and little things like that I know as a full-on grocery store but I like a look out there as I see a fat you know 10,000 towels in the store III think it's like Amazon 101 here like ground zero all this stuff you could buy on Amazon and not only that it's like you can buy stuff a Walmart so I'm think the business model worked for a while but stores are huge at least you know relatively speaking in these mall based stores are big for the malls and we know mall traffic has been dropping for years so this is a story that remains broken I mean yes you know if you played it from 13 to the 1718 you can't make money even when stocks are in serious down trends but the easier money is fade in the pops so do I ever want I don't want to come in here today in sell at 13 but when it was getting that action you know just using his examples they get that action up at 17 18 that would have been the opportunity I did not play it and I probably would have got shaken out because the thing did he know start making new highs after that I got up to 19 so it wasn't easy sale in there for at least a month but eventually it started to break down and since it started breaking down it's been going straight down all right we're keeping track of the tickers here add guys and gals and we will get to them I see Twilio Roku beyond meat all these things will be covered here but it's gonna be on me lets us do it I was gonna buy it last night I yeah just because I was like it's going a hundred you gotta teach me I did not I had it last night I was actually trying to buy it I didn't think about it till like after 7 o'clock last night I was looking at it I was like oh this is going to a hundred probably tomorrow so I tried to buy but I did not get it I was like I didn't want to pay way up and I was already training at 98 so I was hoping it would come back down like settlement 9750 97 60 sure just paid up to the 98 the things 102 here this morning it's hot when you're when your story's going your story's going I mean it's got the story going now it makes no sense from evaluation perspective Kramer's absolutely right but I mean the story is going so you know we talked about if four days ago saying you know had a little double bottom in place I thought the high was in I thought the Spencer top the 96 68 was the high it obviously sold off significantly for two days after that but when I put in that little double bottom I mean these newer newer stocks are looking for little technical formations like that that little double top 15 16 17 was sign of a temporary reversal that little double bottom from that 21st and 22nd that was the sign of a temporary reversal that moved to and just started climbing climbing and now it's starting to go you know up into getting a parabolic LAN but I mean there's nothing in here could go anywhere so shorting this is hard I mean remember till right not saying this is tell ray at all but this is a thinner stock remember tell ray going from like a hundred to three hundred in like three days that was one day that was with that no way yeah that's why on these things are very hard you can say all you want that doesn't make any sense but remember though that the famous quote the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent this is a story stock right now the story is completely intact so I thought NBC might have topped it but it didn't it's taken that out now so now I would not want to be short the stock I mean this could see 110 today not joking let's get see honored 10 bucks today um so I think you're a buyer pullbacks and Tahlia get back down and you start breaking down through a hundred again and I just to be clear when you see there's nothing in here you're saying there's no size in the book there's not a lot of it's just a thin stock but yeah so so and and just to clarify when your stocks are making you all-time highs I never want to be sure to stock making new all-time high I never want to be long a stock making a new all-time low because there's no pain up there there's no previous reference points everybody who owns the stock is making money so nobody's looking to get their money back and then the shorts are saying here and saying well I don't want to get my head ripped off so I'm not gonna go there either so liquidity on the sell side will be lower naturally it's always gonna be people who are gonna take profits but that's it it's just people who are taking profits not people hoping to get their money back that's why I don't you know when you see you know the formation that we saw back on the sixteenth seventeenth that's when you can strike when you get a little double top or something in place something told enon there's nothing to lean on here so this thing can go anywhere and the story is strong I mean we've been straight down this markets stories go stalks went straight up so it's very difficult to come here and say okay 102 stop I don't know I think six months from now I've said that already I think the stock is gonna be a lot lower but in the next month or two who knows where the singing go go to 150 you could go anywhere so I actually like it from a long side here just on pullbacks I wish I would have bought it last night I'd be holding on to it if I did uh just one thing to about this one I I've only tried to short it once and that's when I put a double top in and like 96 a change and I had supports I think they were June's or whatever and then I actually had to put the day that laughter hopped on it okay and I just watched the trading action that day and you know it hit it it went down I did cover and I'm just like it just it just didn't look like a left I mean not just the buyers came in there and I did the cover in a couple days later and like a very very small profit but but sometimes when stocks is how they react to news is is really important with that one you know I thought hey you know maybe it could go down to that level but boy oh boy I don't know if he covered on that one but man he's been on he's been really making some calls lately so ah c15 now I'm keeping track of the stocks here girls in juniper up next I washed track of time a 15 let's grab our guest mark shaken from shaken analytics joins us every other Thursday right eyes I like it on the fly all right we'll find out Markakis hey Mark how's it going you are alive go well watch it on the fly your life here let's see him with with with pre market prep here what's uh what's on your radar here today I mean this market is wild we saw a lot of defensive stocks getting hit the last couple days safe havens it seems like the only safe haven as of late is beyond me when you have any other safe havens for us be it besides cash I don't think beyond me – safe haven but that shouldn't get into we're in a three-day period here where the market should be going higher and the reason is that we've had a month where the SP is down over 5% and the bonds are up over 4% and there are these huge multi multi-billion dollar funds that sort of balance between equity and debt and they should be buying stocks and selling bonds in here over the next three days if that doesn't happen and I'm fearful will break the 200-day at 2750 five and then the next real supporters at 2650 so this is a period where we've been recommending buying dips actually done quite well with that strategy but there comes a time when you have to look at the market action and say where's the buying samuel is going to come from and right now I can't imagine a tweet coming from President Trump that could possibly turn this market around good point and I would say kid you know in conventional thinking Wow lower interest rates are good for the market right I mean supposedly I mean if you're having it into a steep recession no somewhat you know with the bonds going up I'm thinking hey you know if there's a lower rate that's usually you know better for stocks and I don't know I mean just the way that the Fed Funds rate and the way these the TLT history I mean they're just flashing recession recession recession and man I don't see it out there mark what about you I don't see it yet either there's a second factor in here that we've talked about this is the first time in my 50 years on Wall Street that we've had negative four zero interest rates in major countries like Germany and Japan so that's putting undue I I call it artificial pressure on yields because if you can get to 20 on a ten-year or to 30 to 50 a couple of weeks ago versus zero or negative rates in Switzerland why wouldn't you buy us debt so I think the bond market is not functioning the way say it would normally be functioning in terms of a forerunner of the economy and the bond market has actually been a very long leading indicator of the economy so I agree with you that lower interest rates are positive I'm not sure that we quite understand what's going on in terms of the dynamics of the demand for US Treasuries but clearly cash is the place to be we did in our sunday market letter recommend lightening up dramatically on utilities the defensive stocks would just fit up to a ridiculous level so there are a lot of themes playing out here weakness and semiconductor because of the potential disruption from the China tariff issues rare earths essential to basically 5g and every other electronic device we use 87% of the productions in China all these things playing out emits political turmoil in Washington I don't see where the buyers are coming from this next three days are critical because there's latent demand for equities as I mentioned and the market better rally in here otherwise commented to by the way it's funny when Mark was talking he just came out that China would love to make a deal with the US that's why we just lifted the couple S&P points here but you know there's a good point that Mark's making here is even these Trump tweets that somewhat hint at you know maybe there's a deal come and aren't getting as much love as they were in the past I mean it used to be we go up you know 20 S&P handles on a Trump tweet 20 SP panels down on a Trump tweet now it's kind of being ignored to a certain extent that wasn't on Twitter I'm not sure where they come I don't know where it was either but I saw it fly by my newsfeed so I know the chat just mentioned I saw it fly by my newsfeed too it's not on his Twitter so he just made a comment and I saw the comment said that China would love to make a deal with the US and say he would love to make a deal with China but he said it's a China would love to make a deal with the US so that's not what we're getting out of China that's the problem China has decided it's time to play hardball and use the media instead of backdoor negotiations so the I think the environment is shifted they may have been working toward a deal behind the scenes with Trump playing both sides of the Twitter ecosystem but now China has very definitely taken a hard line in public so why not really I mean I agree with you here mark you know they're taken you know they're playing hardball here back and I agree I'm with them I mean if I was China you know even just analyzing I mean you start thinking about it all this does not I think you know Trump wants to say that this helps you know our US companies by no imposing all these tariffs and stuff but we've had a lot of kind of multinational companies coming out and saying that is not the case so you know I think you know everybody else realizes that except Trump that this trade war is is not good in my opinion it's not good for the US you know trade war is good and it's not just the multinational take a look at CBS this morning and in general anybody who buys their goods in China has to readjust their supply chain or see their costs go way up and readjusting the supply chain takes time it's not just the caterpillars the deers the Boeing's the Triple M honey over the world its retail and guess who pays that price it's the consumer issue costs go up then the consumer is going to pay for that it's not going to be absorbed they're not in a position to absorb it and retail has obviously a duel a duel hit here with the Amazon a fan press with the potential effect on tariffs that's always the interest they think it's potential there even TVH so what we're just having a bad quarter market error yeah just finish up on this topic I mean you're a longtime veteran of the markets like myself here and I mean his there ever I mean when we started obviously there was no Twitter LinkedIn or cell phones or any of this stuff by I mean does it give you an uneasy feeling that the market is so susceptible to tweets come you know news nothing substantial no fundamentals they said does it give me a night I mean you know obviously being a long-term investor you know I'll stay in the market long term I'm not gonna get out of things like this but man oh man oh man I mean just give me a little bit uneasy for me and everything else a lot of positives going on but that the fact that you know I mean he'll tweet like 12 times on like a Saturday morning I know does that I mean you know what that doesn't really bother me and here's why as we were going from 20 350 on Christmas Eve 22950 nobody was complaining about the tweets he had a 25% rally in the large-cap sector of the market and nobody cared about the tweets now that the market is correcting 6% slightly under 6% we're all you know keyed in on the tweets yeah it's distressing but that's the world we live in you know you got a ride the horse that you came in on what's the old expression so yeah it's not the way I would do business but it's a fact of life right now I mean Elon Musk is another example of you know the Twitter demon who got slapped down by the SEC unfortunately there's nobody to slap down the president when it comes to Twitter but I think you hit on the key point stay with your long-term Holdings this too shall pass we're in that you know five to ten percent pullback phase that comes one or two times a year on average usually lasts for months guess what were four months off the P a four weeks rather were four weeks off the peak so it's probably not the time to turn bearish I'm just concerned about this period here as I said where the market has some latent equity demand and I'd like to see that gain some traction so that we can get back up over 2800 and then maybe once we get past the beginning of June the market starts to look a little better heading into the g20 meeting its this is a pullback and we're making a lot of it because we got used to you know straight up for four months mark so if this is a pullback and this is a buying opportunity potentially what stocks are you looking at because we have had some significant pull backs in some good names you know if you had a little list you know give us a couple you know that you think is you know a good deal at these prices yeah so in electronic payments we've love MasterCard and PayPal now for a while and they were featured in Barron's that means there's going to be a little selling pressure after that Monday spike I like the insurance stocks MetLife and a select the software stocks are still being relatively good to us synopsis SNPs recommended for a second time this weekend as our bullish talk of the week they make testing in productivity software for the semiconductor manufacturers and the stock has really been an outstanding performer interestingly Motley Fool recommended it we can have to go and you know Motley Fool tends to take a five to ten year outlook for better or worse so that encourages me that it's not that we liked it 97 is a buy down here at 116 aerospace particularly some of the smaller names like l3 and leidos look interesting and this morning Goldman Sachs upgraded Citicorp to or by city corpse the only stock I've been wrong on in my weekly market insights for the last two months recommended it about 69 as trading down here around 64 City I think and grow and Goldman more importantly things can grow without you know a global boom and without interest rates moving back up stock is dirt cheap selling under Book value and I think you got to be very selective but that those are some areas of the market and stocks that we think are attractive here based on the power gauge rating I mean all the banks have given back the majority of the gains that they got there in April and we really started to pop up there and Bank America's giving it all back Citigroup was given the majority of it back one concern for me and I just want to get your thoughts on this too is you know something we've talked on the show for the last couple of years and I believe it's why the banks continuing to perform its Deutsche Bank I mean this thing continues to go down it's now six dollars and 84 cents you're talking you know if if for whatever reason this Deutsche Bank continues to go down and you know in a worst-case scenario that they actually don't make it I mean what is the contagion risk here I mean this is this is one of the biggest banks if not the biggest bank in Europe and it's got some serious problems at least the stock thinks it does well yeah the South looks like I quite honestly don't know the answer to your question that's somewhat above my paygrade every time that we've looked at contagion and the list just look at the last 20 years the currency Thai Baht 1997 the Russian bond collapse in 1998 brought on long term Capital Management's demise we you know every time we think there's contagion it's contained so yes it looks serious quite honestly I don't know what the long-term or the short-term impact on the US banks would be it's a good point and someone smarter than than me is gonna have to give you that is alright one more for ya it's crude oil never gonna stop going down here and you have just a big decline here over supplies what are they gonna ease up on that on the pumps there and of course that's not really good for the you know the S&P 500 a couple big oil stocks are in the you know the top 10 15 holdings any outlook on oil before we let you go well I think you've had a normal retracement you rallied from 4500 I the TF up to 67 and you pull back less than 40% of that rally I think people a hedge funds particularly that bet on oil are betting that with a global slowdown possible because of the tariff wars that the demand for oil drop I haven't liked the oil stocks particularly the offshore drillings like Alan Burt and Schlumberger for nine months so even when oil was rallying from $45 all the way up to 67 those stocks were making new 52 we close and continue to do that so it's it's a sector that I would definitely avoid no point in guessing the bottom and the fact that crude oil is coming down and they correct a little more just adds a little more quote unquote fuel to the fire I never even on with mark shakin shakin analytics mark as always thanks to the time and we talkin couple weeks yeah let's hope we're on an upswing in a couple of weeks all right let's hope so have a good good thank you all right 8:30 here I guess we can do imbalances or we could do earnings there's a lot we can do q1 GDP reading here that's in line three point one percent yeah very very little movement there on the S&P saw it's quiet and bounce a hundred thousand sound GE that kind of stands out that's there almost every day I mean we've been talking about that cellar for years that's pretty much that they're they're all small very small there was something I want to bring out real quick this is a tweet that I saw yesterday from a great follow on Twitter if you haven't if you don't follow my name is Ben Carlson his vlog is a wealth of common sense and he tweeted short here and so right now we are in a five percent correction in the S&P 500 I think back to 2007 2017 remember there was like no volatility that year and news it was like a really boring year and it and last year we had of course the correction in the fourth quarter and and this year we've we've been a little bit more volatile as well so Ben Carlson went and looked in since 1950 there have been one two through five years with it without a five percent correction in the sp500 and 2017 was one of those years so this is normal this 5% of them and this is volatility is normal yeah this is one and people forget you're making a great point there Spencer I mean 2017 we talked about it there and I think the biggest downfall wasn't even 3% that year was ridiculous it was just straight up it was really from a training perspective it was a very boring market justice lay know from an investing standpoint you love that when your portfolio just slowly climbs but from a trading standpoint it's it's boring the VIX fell under 10 I mean that is you know from a training perspective you know not good at all I think 2017 was one of my worst trading years in a long time and that was simply because the volatility was so low 2018 I almost doubled what I made in 2017 simply because of all tele picked up so I've always said in my own personal trading I'm a trading perspective that as the VIX goes higher my trading profits go higher to simply because I'm trading a lot of inefficiencies so you know if you're doing any type of stat ARB there's just more opportunity when you've got more volatility today I joined it to bring bring weight up then 5% correction like this normal nothing to see here unless it becomes you know 25% correction but moving on so let's get to some earnings because we talked about retail but we didn't talk about any of the earnings reports that we had by the way uber is today which I didn't realize thereafter the clothes so let's don't forget that but let's talk about DG here this morning Dollar General they reported earnings as I pull the numbers up q1 EPS they beat and they beat buck forty eight versus a buck 39 on the EPS sales of six point six two four six point five six billion dollars and they reaffirmed their guidance for the fiscal year well what is DG do and I haven't looked at the truck yet it's been lifting ever since they were nervous last night and I can't blame them for being nervous into any retail report so there was people selling last night ahead of it and that's probably just like seeing you know what happened to goose will happen to have economy and Fitch and just get thoughts that hey if this thing does the points could fall 15 points Anja it did not happen they did not disappoint in stocks trading up six box trained up six bucks off the pre market i pre market hi comes in at one twenty five seventy nine and let's see what's the all-time high here all-time highs 126 84 so let's see that area above the pre market high up to the all-time high is a potential sell area once you bust into the 127 handle nothing in there and interesting divergence here with Dollar Tree someone's asking about it in the chat here boy oh boy I wasn't reported yeah yeah the score to the Dollar Tree report alright let me bring it up here I was looking for at a broken but DLT are there also this morning q1 just EPS of a buck 14 is in line with the estimate sales five point eight four five point seven nine billion dollars so essentially in line on both those numbers the q2 eps guidance that they gave was in wine and the sales guidance that they gave was I think also in wine fiscal year guidance same story you know expectations and these both of these stocks and every stock every retail stock reporting today really the beneficiary believe it or not of goose and Abercrombie & Fitch because all those bars moved a lot lower yesterday for all these stocks I mean you know you had a stock like Ulta ult a that was down 15 points yesterday just because it was a retail stock and they were hitting everything retail so the bar has been set so low you know even Dollar General was down you know three dollars another two dollars after hours because everybody's nervous about them so they come out and they don't you know say anything really bad is a good thing right now the retail stocks of all you know we've talked about it it's been carnage across the board so these ones reporting late have a very low bar to get over so you know don't expect you know they didn't raise guy in sub sits gonna get lose 15 points as long as they don't you know say something really bad or significantly lower guidance some of these stocks are actually gonna go higher on these reports because the bar is set so low from what we've seen so far from Kohl's from Nordstrom from geo OS yesterday from Abercrombie and fetched the bar is set very low for a lot of these retailers all right price action in DG boom I'm sorry $4 tree given my dollar store is mixed up here I did have a dip a quick dip down under bar yeah 8720 got bought up now it's trading up $10 I got a lot of overhead supply here in this one cuz you've come down hard off the 110 level let me see we're not over a hundred bucks yet and how are we trading in relation we're writing yesterday's high yesterday's high 96 98 so use that that your pre market high was a little bit above that but above 97 you got a chance to rally another 100 munna yeah maybe to 100 I don't know I mean night before you get through that you got to get you a pair of highs let's just call it 98-85 so clear in 97 nothing really up there till 98-85 on the downside up a buck 44 use your clothes as support I mean every stock besides Movado which is a different story but you know you look at all the other companies a reporter here this morning they're all doing pretty well Burlington you want to go to be your be URL that's not trading down either what they say yeah they're EPS same story pretty much in line slight beat a buck 26 they beat by penny on that revenue one point six three first one point six one billion dollar so they essentially you slide being on both earnings and sales I mean it's down you know 75 cents it just traded flat there with an odd lot these things they've had their beating already a lot of them have had their beating and if you lower guidance you know you're always gonna get more of a beating but as long as you don't lower guidance on some of these things some of these stores and Burlington's always been one that's had you know I've been more in favor I mean the discount stores like the dollar store isn't Burlington if you look at the long-term charts these have all held up very well TJ Maxx is another one raaah store is the discount retailers have all held up in the last couple years much better than the bit in the big box reach or the traditional you know department stores the discount retailers have been doing better and it seems like every time the discount retailers pull back that they get bought and as long as you know they don't have a really disappointing you know numbers here some of these actually couldn't you know could rally from these levels unchanged I would be surprised you see be URL get some life here today depending on the market I mean if the market rolls over again which I'm a little bit scared of the market I don't know your thoughts Joel but it seems like every rally we get gets quickly sold you know that's the only thing that scares me about buying anything right now but you know you look at these and you know look at Dollar Tree need to go it's up six bucks I'm gonna automatically sell it or Dollar General it's up six bucks when automatically sell I don't know if that's the case cuz they already had a beating they've already had a beating and they don't even say anything yet I mean Dollar General maybe not so much but these these discount retailers do better what about PVH here okay gang cracked last night yeah gang crack after their report last night which you know the headline weren't wasn't that bad the EPS for the first quarter they beat by two cents two dollars 46 cents for two dollars forty four cents and the sales was a slight missed at two point two verse two point three seven billion dollars their fiscal year guidance that they gave the EPS guidance was I guess in wine I think they said something bad about the the current quarter and how they expected that challenging backdrop this quarter but I don't know they had wonder they had the CEO Jim Cramer had him on Mad Money last night and I was watching that interview and he didn't sugarcoat anything he was had a lot of negative commentary so they gotta do better said their digital stuffs doing very well but everything else is hurting and he was blaming he blamed the tariffs to a certain extent he's blaming just the market environment there was a lot of blame going around there but he didn't sugarcoat anything and it did not sound like a turnaround was imminent so this is not one that I would be coming in here and saying this thing's gonna bounce right back you know anything can happen this market is funny it is down it was $130 stock a month ago so you're shorting it at eighty nine you're already you know buying some other shorts priors you're shorting somebody others profits you know you look at one-thirty down $2.99 down to 89 you're down 50 points in a month so I think you're too late to shorted here but I don't have the guts to say 89s the bottom really especially after what they said that CEO was saying last night this is uh this is one of those tester pre market charts here because you've made the low at 87 87 I believe that's the low here 87 I see 8775 but you're a buck and a half off it I guess that's a little you know I got a little bit of a cushion here so if you're trying to buy this thing at any level it breaks 87-75 look out for more downside I thought I saw a low in the 86 is going back I don't know where it was on the chart but just keep an eye on that pre market low and the high the rebound high off this is 90 62 so if you're trying to just keep an eye on that pre market low an ugly-looking chart here not really much else to say about Phillip and using I guess no one's wearing their shirts anymore so Palo Alto Networks PA NW is getting hit here too getting to the big support of $200 big psychological level there always gets interesting there I mean we've seen in this trend though where stocks disappoint they go down sometimes they continue to go down I'm not feeling like this is gonna be one of those that drops you know down like 190 or anything like that let's see what it does at 200 give us a number Spencer the earnings were fine and the guns was light so I'll just give you the guidance the q4 eps guidance that they gave a buck 41 to a buck 42 is the range that they gave a buck 55 was the estimate the sales guidance that they gave at 795 to 805 million dollars was that that was okay but the EPS guidance was was a Miss by about 14 cents I I gave my analysis I said man this thing has just been perched you know I had held 220 support after making that all-time high now you're too that I mean just a long consolidation after making the old time high and now you've turned south I don't know about this one pre market low stands at 198 12 so I use that as a potential area to cover short not sure about a lawn their number yeah the longer it takes to get there you know maybe you get a little bit of a rebound but look at this saying and also when you're looking at it at the monthlies I mean you had held you between between two 1440 and then the all-time high at 260 63 that was actually in the same month and I mean just it's turned and it's turned south here so I'm looking at it when this thing had a major peak in September of 2018 went from 239 50 down to 160 Oh 8 here so well I'd be cautious on this one keeping an eye on the pre-market low of okay I say they pre my goal of 198 12 and another couple that reported last night viva systems Vee Vee that's getting a big left here and then let's do ke why I asked to keysight technologies they were all on my list to talk both right Viva EPS 50 Cent's first a 44-cent estimate cells of 244 verse 238 million dollars so beating on both the key one numbers Q 2 EPS guns at the gate was higher q2 sales guns that they gave was higher fiscal year ApS got entire fiscal your sales guidance higher so higher everything for Vee Vee its let's see what does the all-time highs 145 70 I believe as if I'm grabbing rights that rachel 145 70 you're right they're playing with it if you can take that out it gets interesting I mean then you have room up to 150 but these things are wild I probably won't be trained these ones difficult to call I mean you think on the key site you think it's a little different shirt cuz you had that gap down now you're you're gapping kind of into a gap and you've got overhead supply but it's kind of loose and tell you get to 84 so it's a tricky one or a tell 8165 it's it's a tricky one there too but I'm not buying anything up 10 11 percent not in this tape a lot of tough charts today really tough these are really tough sometimes I like to convey that if I see something something stands out to me not nothing yeah nothing I mean on that and the pbh or the feed not that I'm active in these you know $100 stocks that much but pre market high I'll just give you that someone is someone is up here with an offer pre market I is 145 70 Danny gave you that that all time high 145 70 as well so we'll keep an eye on that for potential move he say yesterday Q is Q 2 EPS a buck 22 big bead 98 cents was the estimate their sales 1.09 of 1.7 billion dollar so they beat on both the q two numbers the Q 3 guy in tat the game was higher for the EPS and a little bit my actually especially in line on the sales see if it can fill that gap I think you're in the middle of nowhere at 79 so I'm not making any calls there you up to 81 65 that fills the gap if you ever got near 85 bucks again I think it's a short up there but I had 7 bucks I are not saying it's going there today at all just saying if you ever got back up there I like it from the short side up near 85 but I think you're early at 79 it's kind of a coin flip in here you got arrow air above air below I don't like just playing on red or black at the casino so I like to have more of an edge than that because those double zeros are there on that good stuff that roulette wheel so I'm out on keys a mama can trade and you know what we've been doing this show too long there I'm sure a lot of people I'd like to see that gap fill at 8165 there's a couple interesting stocks here in the chat I just want to cover real quick actually three of them uh the first ones US Steel and I got a downgrade so to sell toys Bank this dock okay it's getting just this is just an awful awful awful trend I mean the trends been your friend if you've been short but two and a half months the stocks been cut in half now I mean eventually you know just like we got back on and may when this thing went from 14 to 16 in a hurry if you're shorting it now you're asking to get a little squeeze on because eventually this thing is going to turn I don't know what day it's going to be but it's been down for so long that it's actually due for a pop so I don't know people are probably coming here saying noise bank sure this thing's going down to ten bucks you know I don't know man I think you've if this thing could go positive none of today's the day but it needs to know shrug one of these rating changes off because everybody hates this stock and when everybody hates a stock I'm gonna say it's starting to get crowded that way eventually it's due for a little bit of a pop is it going to my long-term portfolio hell no not with a chart like that and you know as a day trade it's tough to call bottoms and you know I'm probably you know what really you know this is something going completely against all my rules trying to call it bottom but I feel like they I don't know why I feel like X could struggle this downgrade off today I don't know why it's just in the back of my head I just put up a pro a pro calendar on the ratings look at it you got a lot of rare downgrades in the last month all the sell yeah yeah and and not just anybody big firms deutsche bank UBS Bank America Credit Suisse so yeah that's what I'm saying remember the 18 team who did the five upgrades in a row and that was the top that was another thing was 40 or 41 or something like that I was a couple years ago I don't know I feel like it's been like too many down grades now I feel like it's gonna have a little you know squeeze squeeze them up it's been too easy for the shorts let's squeeze them a little bit let's have a little move like we did back in May maybe go from like 12 bucks up to like 14 and in a day and everybody back uh-oh so I don't know I I'm not I may not trade it but I would not be shorting in the hole here on this I think as to it's been down for too long and eventually it could you know potentially squeeze the day traders who have had too easy on the short side on this it's trading right at yesterday's low here 1264 hardware yeah it's making a new low for the move you have to go back to with this weird chart day let's see here heard chart they not even weird our chart day ah I see in March of 2016 and had an 852 love so but I don't know I guess with a stock like this it raised a decent amount of volume I think you can lean on the book a little bit more there any bids at 12:50 dennis is all I didn't bring my book up so tributes back you gotta grab the book because I didn't bring mine up this other platform yeah that's okay you know if there's something in the book then you know maybe something to lean on or eventually find it buy it like this thing just choose for anything in the book it trades big volume and it can just chew through stuff so it's difficult one to say okay we got a level here we got a major buyer major seller it seems like a major sell at least a major buyer always seems to get done what about bad day yesterday and got trading down nine cents here I can honestly say I do not see any support until 1:46 86 and that fills the gap so it's in the gap area they report let me look at my report yeah that's that's interesting here that's just a great example what we were talking about you've had every retailer despite even st. Davids say anything yesterday they lose 12 points they are scared of retailers I don't I don't think they had any news yesterday and I don't know something this Lululemon if it stays weak like that might be a buy another report because they seem to always beat those stores are busy and they're hitting it on it everybody else is bad news this is one that I actually might actually like to buy ahead of the report what are they they do always beat and they don't have a confirmed date but I wouldn't expect it at 12 spices doing 12 okay so we got a first two weeks at you let's see well what we'll do this analysis again and remind us the day before they reanalyze it but if Lulu still in the gutter ahead of its report it always is seems to be so you know just like I played the Momo because it always beats it seems like on their earnings or it always has it was a good one I might do the Lulu the same and I mean I had some guts on the Mohawks actually didn't do calls I bought the stock flat-out into the reports I thought they were gonna be and they did and on Lulu I might do the same thing we'll see I don't normally do that but I did in most case I might do another Lulu case if we go back we'll see what's happened on June 11th that's my birthday yeah will you actually Nancy yesterday they said we're gonna our report is going to be released June 12th they said the call will be at Ford's dream 12 – after the bell so that's the confirmed 8 6 q 1 of 2012 the stock has missed I and the EPS three times and came in line once so all those other be talking about like 20 so and seven years for 24 24 or three and one that's a pretty good record exactly one in three or whatever went from 280 five point seven million to one point one seven billion in last quarter so you know what they might be keeping an eye that was a healthy revenue beat last quarter I don't know if they're gonna pay as much a headline number but like if you see that revenue dip to like 900 million or something like that then you know you might get some people scared but actually I mean just the uptrend here no yeah I mean it's just been an unbelievable performer – Joel like you think about think about their environment that we're in and everybody's going and buying discount this and discount that your traditional you know your mall first of all they're in malls the malls the retailers haven't been doing well certainly is they sell high-end stuff like these things are expensive and they sell this stuff you know think about how much money when you're buying a pair of yoga pants for 80 bucks or whatever it is from them what's your profit margins I think it can't cost even close to that pretty reduce there are certain brands that I think are immune from this sort of thing and it really is are so elite I think like Warby Parker it's so elite it's like the best of the best yeah if there's any retailer I want to own it's Lululemon and you know and I'm a discount guy but if there's any of these retailers mall retailer cuz most of these are in malls if there's any mall retailer that I want to own its Lululemon those stores you look out and they're always busy people are paying you ridiculous amounts of money for you know these pants and they light and they're hot the story is still intact they make you know some serious money or proper merchants at least on the stuff they're sound and and this shirt says it all and in those numbers that you said said it at all to in seven years they missed what you said once or twice or something three times and there was be happy always be yeah III might actually buy this in the will see all right we got five minutes yeah I want to go into some stocks in the chat okay just si si si si Q hadn't looked at it so are they reported last night yeah for this morning's were this morning 29 cent loss versus a 49 Senate lost estimate so that's a 20 cent beat sales 484 for 469 $1,000,000 so beating the beat for casi q a little bit up 80 cents your pre market high comes in at 1913 so there's a good target on the upside and nothing night really I don't see you think if we could get to that 1913 I do see a pair of highs just under nineteen and a half but you have leaked a little bit off that high so you need to get back over at 19 the hurry okay let's go to uh let's go to some chats yeah Twilio was mentioned and they had an interesting I have mine yesterday they announced a secondary offering a 750 month other common stock offering which you don't typically see for stocks that have moved the way Twilio has moved yeah stock that's you know these texts I was out of the blue you know the Merck you didn't see that coming I don't think you've the pricing on it yet but it got hit three bucks immediately on that news that they were gonna dilute shareholders a bet you know obviously I'm firm stocks you see it all the time after stock is a big pop because they got to fund the trials I don't know what what the raising money for here it's interesting though alright depth we'll see we'll see what what was the Toyo Twilio yeah we were just talking how the drug companies like to do those second he's right we have to the drug they have a good try you know they get through the second phase or and they've got a fun trials for the third phase they gotta fund it so you often see you know drug stocks gonna pop and then do a secondary it's just you know none of these you know names these Tecmo names and that you know you you haven't seen a secondary from any of these a long time so I don't think they're I haven't seen the price go by yet and that's the thing as these new prices really are like magnets at least for a couple days until the offering is over so I have not seen a price go by on it yet we'll wait and obviously you know what that price comes out and that that's the blood level you want to look at if it comes out like 125 it's like a magnet they suck it down to it so you just got to be careful those prices you know technicals are or basically you know take a backseat here until we get that pricing and I think I'd be totally hands-off on the same if it was like it if they priced it even it like 120 I don't like them they didn't offer yeah yeah I mean I wonder if it's uh if it's like you know insider shareholders you know Psalms sometimes that but this sounds like flat-out dilutions thought they're you know and sometimes you get it you know uh you know in the case of like virtue for nan Shah was just a big insider that just wanted to dump and they're doing the offering just to get rid of their shares you know banned which which can be a good thing or a bad thing but it's not dilutive it sounds diluted to me so i don't know if they're doing something good with 750 million you'd assume they're doing it you know maybe it's gonna be a good thing long term but i don't know what they're doing with the 700 million i thought they said it no they haven't yeah so there's raising cash alright moving on to the list here haven't talked about this one in a while where's that yeah turtle beach wow that story ended with that last summer was up like $35 everybody had to buy these headphones these stories all in bad guys i don't know you look at this thing was to box from 2018 you go up to 35 stories broke in yeah you're gonna get little little rallies here and there no pun intended but we're kind of intended but below $8 i think this thing's continuing jeff lower trend is not your friend I'm a seller of all rallies with this one I mean if if you're trying to buy it on the cheap you do have a trio of those at 8:58 41 852 and 853 so there's your support so if you want to do a little swing trade and risk a buck on it if you want to wait and buy it on strength see if we could ever get over ten bucks I mean I see an it broke under ten went from 1028 to 931 on May 13th haven't been over ten dollars in a while so I perhaps buying it on strengths above ten dollars and leaning on that eight a half looks like maybe you got institutions poking around there a little bit but pretty much a lot of red candles on the monthly doesn't look good what other ratings city up at Goldman we mentioned X down at Deutsche Bank just quickly fly through a couple other ones mr. Israel all right in a Hazzard push up at Argos to buy to juice Zynga up at Stephens to overweight comcast up at guggenheim to buy Cypress UI up at Morgan Stanley to neutral we mentioned Citigroup already those are the big ones as an upgrade laying down gray lane Toll Brothers downgrade to neutral Raymond James Canada goose downgraded Bank America in neutral steel dynamics downgrade door trim it Georges Bank to to neutral we mentioned US Steel Tavo don't read make America on the perform thank you very much Verizon upgrade at UBS sorry downgrade you be asked to neutral and that's it did you did you have you looked at stamp lately down assess EMP no I set up 35 I thought we're gonna continue to leak air it's continuing to leak yeah thirty to sixty two it hit yesterday closed at 33 51 so you're leaning on something for that stories over six twenty bucks six months one more from the chat let's look at Google I have looked at Google in a while okay either one is one of the biggest positions in my long-term portfolio I'm still firm Google believer the charts been ugly but I'm sticking with that I've been in Wow I've taken out my initial capital so I'm looking to please the houses money forever now I think this is still one of the best like to see it get back over 1120 yet at pare lows in that area then you broke down to 1108 22 yesterday so getting back over 1120 I think we're not you know single a little bit of strength but new lova for the move yesterday got 1108 22 so if you're trying to pick a bottom here that's what you got to lean on 10 bucks away and then someone we just haven't talked about Tesla in a while and I think you got a price cut at Barclays Thank You Barclays couple Lowe was in the same area 186 22 is you know the other day and then you hit 180 504 yesterday so once again swing trade kind of you know gotta gotta get out other this is so many problems Mercutio said it 2-0 yesterday on her show he's a smart cookie so I'm you know I don't I get over 200 not interested in this at all not from trade and you know obviously debt problems are eating them up right now it's eating them alive I still love the cars I still don't believe any lon musk but those debt issues are killing them yeah yeah I told you a story at Somerset Mall I drove oh great yeah when you said you were driving with Jason – cuz Roz has one he does so I remember I told his story at Somerset month when we can finish with the story where they're you know where we were they're all lined up there so everybody because they had the Tesla store so they got the two stood cars they're gonna race going in them and we're lined up me and Spencer I've got my three year old he was three years old at the time and they've got it's so busy to check out these cars they've got people lined up to go to the front of the car one direction and people could lined up to go in the back of the car the other direction so you get in the queue there and queue and like I'm British or something but you get in the line and yeah so I got the British background to me we got the Queen right so we called a queue we actually called lines at Canada but I'll call it a queue for fun so we're in the queue and we're there for like a couple minutes and then we get in the back of the car and there's people we don't even know in the front because they're coming from both directions so we're sitting in the back and like wow this car is awesome and then I smell something like like Spencer did you – yep we gotta get people you don't even know in the front of the car he's Tooting so spice my three-year-old tuna to the Tesla there's no better way to rev up the market full of toots right now yeah you want a 4-day of two – it's a four-day that would draw on Dennis you can hang out with him at the pins in a trading summit June 20th at the church in Times Square in New York City go to BZ profit.com into the promo code PM p15 all caps PM p15 to get 15% off your ticket including tickets to the date the trading lounge where Joel and Dennis and can you click and in Rabanne and Jerusalem and Tod Gordon will be hanging out all day so again busy profit calm for that thanks to our guests today mark shaking thinks I've won who join us in our chat room is both on YouTube and pre market defending calm if you missed any part of our show catch our podcast iTunes SoundCloud stitcher tuning and Google Play please remember everything we say on our show is for informational purposes only not meant to be investing advice and on that note everyone have a good rest of your day and we'll be back with you on Friday

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